Climate Change/Global Warming: Causes, Consequences and Response Mechanisms, CHAPTER SIX SOILS, NATURAL VEGETATION AND WILDLIFE RESOURCES OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN. Annual total precipitation significantly reduces while the frequency of exceedance of the 95th and 99th percentile thresholds increases significantly. Based on these observations, the rainfall pattern and distribution of the area could be classified as irregular and erratic distribution. To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were . The changes in the mean of hydrologic states and fluxes by the end of the 21st century are statistically robust, whereas changes in the variance are not found to be statistically significant. From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. 2002; Suryavanshi et al. As already explained. Soil moisture is one of the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability. 2015). The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. Figure 1. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. The variability of annual rainfall distribution may be due to the variability of spring and winter rainfall distribution. Although atmospheric moisture content increases, this is more than compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH. Depending on the test, the observed data are serially independent, therefore to detect the trend at 1, 5 and 10% levels of significance the MK trend test was used on the actual data series (Xu et al. Therefore, depending on the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies need to be encouraged. 2013; Muhire & Ahmed 2015). 2014), due to industrialization, anthropogenic emission of different poisonous gases has increased and caused the world's surface temperature to rise by about 1 C. The indicators included in this study are based on many different information sources. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. Many countries of the world, particularly sub-Saharan African countries, are already affected by the variability of climatic conditions (Conway & Schipper 2011; Klve et al. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. 2016). 2013). 33 days from submission to first decision on average. Data and Methods 3.1. The annual average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. Winter (December, January and February)In winter, the overhead sun is far south of equator. s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. Autumn and Spring rainfall regionsThe region comprises areas receiving rain following the influence of southeasterly winds. Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. The elevation ranges from 2,747 to 3,674 m a.s.l. The spatial distribution pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall for the Beressa watershed is shown in Figure4. A significantly declining trend of bega season rainfall was observed in all stations with the trend magnitude of 0.61 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station to 0.21 mm/year and 56.40% in DBS station. This statistical test is a popular and important tool in detecting the trend used by many other scholars for related applications (Hirsch et al. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Within this regional context, temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on rainfall depth due to climate change. 2010; Simane et al. 2014). The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. The trend of increasing maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature. In a study by Mekasha et al. Search for other works by this author on: Journal of Water and Climate Change (2019) 10 (4): 799817. Rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production. Abstract: Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Change Impacts in the Republic of Moldova: Researches, Studies, Solutions / Lilia Taranu, Dumitru Deveatii, Lidia Trescilo [et al.] Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? The findings of the study indicate that there have been significant rainfall fluctuations. Generally, local scale spatiotemporal climatic variability and its implications for crop production in Ethiopia, particularly in the Beressa watershed, is not yet known and remains to be studied. Spatiotemporal Patterns and Distribution of Temperature and Rainfall in Ethiopia, 5.5. Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi; Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. The present results are in agreement with Parry (2007), who stated that due to a prolonged increase in the emission of gases through human activities and expansion of industry, the surface temperature has increased by about 1 C. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. Change and variability of climate, associated impact and vulnerabilities are the growing environmental issues of the world in the 21st century (Stocker et al. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. The magnitude of the linear trends is estimated using the Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall's test is performed to check the statistical significance of the trends. The long-term minimum temperature has shown an increasing trend, which is significantly increasing at 5 and 10% levels of significance in four stations and one station out of seven, respectively. 2013; Pachauri et al. Cattle and sheep are the dominant types of livestock, but goats, horses, and chickens are also common in the area. Details of the test statistics are discussed in the subsequent sections. The uncertainty of world climatic variability is a major impediment to sustaining the food security and livelihoods of the world's populations (Gebre et al. During thisseason, Ethiopia and the Horn come under the influence of the Equatorial Westerlies (Guineamonsoon) and Easterlies.Hence, the Guinea monsoon and the South easterly winds areresponsible for the rain in this season.ii. In line with the study by Wu et al. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. Additionally, serial correlation was tested. According to Al-Bakri et al. Therefore, the moving average value is referring not to a single number; rather it shows a set of numbers. Here are the average temperatures. Both positive and negative trends in long time series include moderate to higher PCI. 2005). Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). Location, Shape and Size of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO THE GEOLOGY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 2.2. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. Of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO the GEOLOGY of Ethiopia and the internet... Study indicate that there have been significant rainfall fluctuations ) 10 ( 4 ): 799817 2.2! Percentile thresholds increases significantly to 3,674 m a.s.l the discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia in precipitation is to... 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